In this podcast Tim breaks down the latest GDP numbers and tells you exactly how this number is rigged.
Tim also covers how the Government distorts the Unemployment rate and inflation data while comparing statements Trump made as a candidate vs statements he’s making now that he’s President.
In one Case Candidate Trump said “5.3 percent unemployment — that is the biggest joke there is in this country.” He also went on to describe it as “such a phony number.” http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/30/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-unemployment-rate-may-be-42-perc/
We also get into the effect increasing interest rates have on your portfolio and how this is the main catalyst for what could ultimately prick the market bubble.
Tim discusses the Federal Reserve’s program to sell bonds and the pressures this will have on interest rates and ways to potentially invest as a result of what he see’s coming.
This is a video podcast where you can follow along but don’t fret if you are listening to this as Tim narrates all the charts and graphs he references.
Lastly Tim goes over his predictions for the midterms and how that could spell disaster for Trump’s economic “recovery”.
This is an action packed podcast… as action packed as a podcast about interest rates can be that you won’t want to miss.
"How it's Rigged - The Economy"
Ever wonder how the Government distorts the Economic data? If so this is the information you've been waiting for.
At only 16 pages. This is the cliff note version of what's really behind the economic data.
Within this report we give an inside look at how the following data is rigged: Inflation, GDP and Unemployment.
Transcription:[00:00:00] Good afternoon everyone. Tim Picciott with the Liberty podcast it is April 30th 2018 and what we want to talk about today is some of the fake news regarding the different economic numbers that are out there. And also we know some of the big developments I see happening in bull for you know the bond market. You know how that's going to affect the stock market. How is going to affect basically your money. How is going to affect your retirement investing. All very very important stuff. But the first thing I want to bring your attention to is an article actually it's September 30th 2015 where Donald Trump says the unemployment rate may be 42 percent. And I actually kid you not. And so you know one of the things. Let me go and read. I'm actually reading a Plitt a factum. Again I trust these guys so far as I could throw them right now may have a torn Labem so I can't throw anybody very far at all. Is the bottom line. But this is a quote from Trump where he says you know Trump described the unemployment rate in the range of 5 as quote such a phony number. That's from September 20th 2015. He then goes on to say the number isn't reflective. He said I see numbers of 24 percent actually saw a number of 42 percent unemployment. Can you believe that. No I was trying to posture him what are you it's how you would say that 42 percent he. Five point three percent unemployment. [00:01:21][80.8] [00:01:22] That is the biggest joke there is in this country. The unemployment rate is probably 20 percent. But I will tell you you have some great economists that will tell you it's 30 32 and the highest I've heard of is 42 percent. Now you know I sort of buy the you know the 20 numbers that he was mentioning. I do know where he gets stuff. And right before the election occurred I wrote a book a little pamphlets 18 pages that could have made it longer but why make it longer when you can get all the information you can get and as little words as possible so it's 18 page pamphlet if you guys want it just send me an email info at the Liberty advisor at 0 dot com. Make sure to get that out to you guys again info at the Liberty adviser dot com and just put in the subject line how it's rigged and I'll be sure to get that to you guys. You can also go to the Liberty adviser dot com. There's a blog section than one section is called How it's raised and they've got broken down by category and that I should be looking at them right now in front of me but I don't. And so you know really the crux. I know where they're getting these numbers from. It's not entirely sure on the 42 percent number although it did just fine a little bit more information on that number. But if you go to the unemployment rate and they've really change over the years you know how they calculate these numbers. [00:02:42][80.0] [00:02:43] And so you've got you know what the government uses is called U3 which is going to be the narrowest definition of unemployment. But then once you've been unemployed for a certain amount of weeks then you're not counted as unemployed anymore so you could actually have more people unemployed but have the unemployment rate go down. So you know riddle me that and down from knows this Niños how this works and so that's why it's very frustrating you know seeing him talk the talk as a candidate. One reason I bring this up is a lot of people have told me like Hey Tim you've really change you know you're on Team Trump you're on the Trump Train. You know what's going on. You know and he you know I see you criticizing him and you've really changed and really I haven't changed at all. I've been saying the same stuff the entire time and as Trump has changed many different things. And I know why he's doing it and where he gets his numbers from. So when it comes to the unemployment rate you know these are phony numbers. He was correct calling these numbers a joke. And so even the government's own broader definition shows you know the rate probably about 7 8 percent. And then if you use shadowstats or if you go to shadowstats Dotcom is showing the number probably close to July 21 22 percent. Now where you've got the 42 percent. [00:03:50][66.8] [00:03:50] And I didn't even know this until today as he referenced David Stockman who I think is a pretty reputable source although you know really I think what David Stockman did in this you know I don't know if this is entirely accurate it probably is closer to that 20 percent number but you know he took the amount of Americans there are who could potentially be in the labor force and they multiply that by the amount of hours that they would have then worked versus the amount of hours from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that were actually worked. So there is potential for 120 billion potential working hours but there is only 240 billion working hours recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are being last and so that's where you get the forty two point nine percent number. And again this is stuff that's coming straight out Don Trump's mouth stuff that was basically coming out of my mouth. I wrote a little book on it. And so it's very disheartening seeing him use all of these you know phony baloney numbers. Now the other calculation that I showed how was rigged the inflation rate again these are just like the super quick boil downs if you want to get you know the more in-depth Poil are the more in-depth answer on all this. You can go check out my blog at The Liberty adviser Doug there's a section called how it's rigged. Everything is right there or Shui-Bian him an email and I'll I'll send the entire booklet to you guys free of charge. So what we have here is the gallery has changed their methodology throughout the years. If you look at 1980s how they calculated inflation versus today it would be close to hovered around 10 percent inflation whereas the government you know came out the other day and said Actually one source said it was I think two point four percent. [00:05:28][97.6] [00:05:28] And then of course the number that the Gerba use was 2 percent because it was one form of government said one branch that has to buy forward other branches too. So then the government in terms of how they calculate GDP decided to use the 2 2 percent number because that number fit their narrative better. Now if you look at how they calculated inflation back in the 80s again because they changed things around where they are now it would be 6 percent today again versus the 2 percent number that we're seeing right now. And again I do have you know this is just the Cliff Notes I mean they do all sorts of things like they used to be say you know wealthier and you bought used to buy steaks and now you're not as wealthy as a buy hot dogs. Now they substitute depressive hot dogs versus the steak and that's why there's the beginning of what these people do and there's things like chained CPI and all sorts of other crap that they do. But how this relates to the recent GDP numbers of the GDP number that came out and now looking at this right now believe it was two point four percent. But what but one of the important things to understand with that number and actually let me just pause for a second. Well I pulled this up all right. So Monday Bureau of Economic Analysis Web Site B E A dot gov. And it's showing that the Q1 GDP increased at two point three percent for the first quarter and to see in the fourth quarter real GDP was two point nine percent. So we went from two point ninety two point three and just put this in perspective you know. [00:06:59][90.9] [00:07:00] You know Trump said that his new campaign slogan for 2020 is going to be you know keep America great. Well you know the last three years and again everyone who's listening to this right now knows our if you don't you know you can go back and see stuff that are up before this. But you know I've never been a fan of Obama I'm not one to you know try to make him look any better but you know just trying to be honest so that in the last three years of Obama the GDP grew at 2.8 percent. So now the GDP if you want is two point three percent. So you know and over the last five years of Obama it was two point one 6 percent and now it's two point three percent. So how is you know even give the benefit of the doubt. Point one 6 How is that you know a failure of an economy but two point three is so great so outstanding that you know stop the presses. GDP has never been better. I mean it's just you see all these ridiculous things that I get I'm politically atheist I don't care about any of these political parties I think they're all liars and they're all snakes. And you know I support the president quite a bit went out of my way to you know make sure he defeated Hillary. But you know I'm not going to you know just carry the water for him no matter what. [00:08:06][65.9] [00:08:06] Unlike Larry Kudlow who is his new chief economic adviser who you know one of the very first I think TV shows that I listed because I'm weird and you know when I was 18 on Facebook as I wrote that I watched The Kudlow Report you know it's something that was watching when I was 14 years old on CNBC. So that's where I said I was weird because I was watching this stuff I was really little. And you know Larry Kudlow you know he's the guy who thinks a lot like me but he's also a team player and so you know he's going to basically carry the water for Trump and you know go against things that he said in the past because now he's part of the administration. Well guess what. I'm not on anyone's payroll. I'm that part of the ministration I'm just trying to give the truth of what's going on with that two point three percent number could have actually bad even a little bit worse because of what they did is a game they rigged that number a little bit. So the current dollar GDP increased four point three percent. And now you know there are some estimates of this against the Bureau of Economic Analysis website where it's some estimates for it here. I'm trying to find it but there was something where it showed that you know the inflation rate was closer to two two and a half percent. OK. Right here. The price index for GDP purchases was increased two point eight percent compared to an increase of 2.5 percent so that they use 2.8 percent like their inflation number that they're referencing but the actual number that was used when they calculated it was 2 percent. [00:09:28][81.8] [00:09:29] So if you take the current dollar GDP increase of four point three percent you subtract 2 which is the state of inflation then that's where you get to two point three percent growth rate. Now if you use some of the other numbers that we used before you know it through a ShadowStats. Back to the inflation data. You know if we go back to you know 6 percent if the economy grew in real terms at four point three but the inflation was six it means that they actually lost one point seven percent. And if it was closer to 10 and it grew at four point three that means that it would have been down five point seven percent negative and actually and that is why people are getting poorer is because we understate the true inflation rate really is. And so all of the cost of living adjustments raises everything's really kind of based off inflation. So if you understate what inflation is you're gradu can make people poor and poor. And that's exactly what has been going on. It's disheartening seeing you know the president kind of espousing some of these what are called fake news and really you know anyone that's going mad at me for talking about the president this way. I mean this was literally the president's own. I mean he said this was that the unemployment raping a 5 percent such a phony number. I mean and now he's touting how great the unemployment number is. And so you could have a situation where there's actually less say blacks or Hispanics employed but since I've been unemployed for so long they don't count as being unemployed anymore. And so know what that number what they're referencing is going to be called the labor force participation rate. [00:10:57][87.8] [00:10:57] And so for people who are watching this right now I'm actually you know Google this in real time. So I know this is off the cuff and we're looking at you know right now it's about 63 percent so you know it shows that there's no you know a quarter a good deal people who aren't in the labor force right now so you're got 63 percent of people who could be working or working. And so you know again these are numbers that Trump as a candidate would talk about but then now that he's the president he's got to use everything to his advantage to really kind of paint the picture as rosy as possible to enjoy his narrative because now he is a politician. Now that said I don't mean anything that happens and the economy is not necessarily going to be the fault of Donald Trump. His fault is is taking all the credit for everything because now he's obviously and get the blame and he probably would have got the blame anyways. But I wish you would just level up with the people and tell them what's actually going on. Because if you want to drain the swamp the swamp is the Federal Reserve System. It's a system that you can never get out from underneath because it is high tech slavery. If you owe interest on all the money that's ever been created and the interest is the you know the debts so to speak is larger than the amount of money that's been created. You're always going to you know there's no way to ever get out from underneath the situation and what has been going on the past 30 years is you've got interest rates that are going down down down. [00:12:16][78.9] [00:12:16] I'm looking at this chart right now let me back out. So from 1981 to today for the most part they are going down. Well I guess you know there was you know a little blip or it went back up. So from 19 really from 1984 onwards it was pretty much a straight march down downer I guess you know they went back up again and you know because of the crash of October 87. So you know really you know from the time I've been Borenore you know really depending how you look at this a few years back interests been going down when rates go down the underlying value of bonds go up. So you've got a million dollars. You're in a 10 year bond. Rates go down 1 percent. Now you've got one point one million dollars. And the reason for that is if you could let's say get 12 percent for a bond. And now you can get 11 percent if you sell your 12 percent bond and you can only get 11 in the market where people will pay more for a bond that pays 12 percent versus one that pays 11. Now the opposite happened happens when rates start to go up. So when rates start to go up you have a 10 year bond a million bucks. Rates go up 1 percent. Technically it's duration bond but that's a concept I don't want to get into the weeds of right now because none of you care. But what if you do care. E-mail me again info. [00:13:25][69.5] [00:13:26] The liberty of your dotcom declined to go into greater detail with this but what you you can do is know your million bucks. Rates go up 1 percent is now 900000 rates go up 2 percent now it's 780000. You're the Federal Reserve and you're sitting on four point four trillion dollars of bonds. Rates go up 1 percent. Now you've just lost 440 billion dollars. What has been troubling that's been going on recently is that you've got the Federal Reserve has actually been selling their bonds. Now this is a position that I can't believe we even got to this point where they are actually able to fool people long enough to get to the point where they actually could sell bonds or try to find right now. OK we got it pulled up. This is a monthly asset purchases by central banks. And what you see in this chart for those of you who are watching out for those you listening to narrate this is you see you know from 2009 on. You know it was close to 100 billion dollars a month to new purchases then we got close to 125. This is worldwide but mainly led by the Fed. And then we've got you know 2013 is probably inching up closer to 100. Fifteen hundred sixty two hundred seventy billion ish. And then 2014 the Federal Reserve you know essentially trying to find the line yes. Right here this pink fuchsia line is the Federal Reserve. They stopped their program. And so what you see right here is the Bank of Japan. As soon as the Fed's Sabur program Bank of Japan ramps up to make up for the slack. [00:14:48][81.7] [00:14:49] And then this other purple ish line right here is the Europeans who started their program out of the blue. So you can see that even though the Fed Reserve stopped buying bonds around late 2014 you know the amount of monthly purchases by central banks dramatically went up so went from about 90 billion dollars a month in central bank asset purchases all the way to the Fed SOBSI program two or three months later you're looking at a 140 billion give or take. I'm eyeballing this right now and then you fast forward to the year and we're just underneath 200 billion dollars. And this actually isn't even taking into account the Swiss National Bank who owns about 80 thousand dollars U.S. of justice or a thousand of just U.S. stocks for every family of four over there. And so you know I've talked about this in the past. You know taking money out of thin air printing it up and are with their keyboards and then just using that to and buy stocks. Now again this has nothing to do with Donald Trump. These are much much bigger than Donald Trump. And so you take a look at the S&P 500 versus the total assets the Federal Reserve which you're going to be in blue S&P in red. And you know where I thought things would start going down around 2014 when this program leveled off right around Halloween. But you know the and it really didn't. The stock market really didn't go anywhere for you know for quite a while. [00:16:08][79.3] [00:16:09] Right before the around the time Trump was left then it really shot off but it was under the backdrop of having all of these other central banks around the world printing tons and tons and hundreds of billions of dollars every single month. Again that's a program that is going to be quickly coming to an end. Now not only are the banks the Federal Reserve not buying bonds but now they're actually starting to sell bonds I believe is about 30 billion dollars a month they're selling part of its Treasury bonds part of its mortgage backed securities. But then the interesting part of this or maybe it's done interesting to you guys I don't know. But then what is going on is that by I think it's October that there isn't a closer to 50 billion dollars a month which is going to max out at 50 billion dollars a month. And this is also under the backdrop of you've got the president took a deficit from 666 billion which was Obama's last deficit so go figure that Obama leaves a deficit of 6 6 6. But you know now we're running close to 100 billion dollars a month deficit or a little over 100 billion dollars a month. So you've got the Federal Reserve needing Dessau 30 billion. Soon it will be 50 billion. Then you've got the treasury having to sell 100 billion. And what that is doing is putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the 10 year Treasury rate. And so right now we're looking at the you know the federal their balance sheet looks like it tops out at four point four or five. Two trillion dollars. And again let me see what timeframe since this is December 13th 2017 looks like was the peak and then now said that let's see four hundred four point three seven trillion dollars. [00:17:44][95.0] [00:17:44] So we barely have shrunk this at all. And what we've seen is that the interest rates have completely shot up so I'm trying to find my chart with the interest rates on here and of course I got a little have a little pop of that decided it would be a great time to pop up at this point. Thank you. Bloomberg website. Let's find one of these was the 10 year Treasury. Here we go. All right so the 10 year treasury has been inching up quite a bit. And so when Trump was elected let me try to get this back up for a shorter time frame here. So when Trump was at one point and we got down all the way to a one point three eight maybe even a little bit lower than that and then right around the time of the election. So let's see November of 2017. Bear with me just to just a second here to Ashley out. That's right. It shoots up so in November first one point eight three. Again this would be the week before the election or the week of the election technically and then you go you know two weeks later it's two point three six so a gigantic move and now it actually did cross three. It's showing I actually read it three right now. So it's you know right around that time frame. [00:18:49][64.8] [00:18:50] Yes it's weird it's exactly three to down to the T on this so and again today might be a little above it might be a little bit lower doesn't really matter but the trajectory is up and that's off a tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny amount of bonds have actually been sold. So traditionally who would go and buy our bonds. Well who would go and buy our bonds were the Chinese. We basically told them to go take a hike. And what they've also done is now they've got this Petro Yuan system that is basically designed to be a backup to the alternative really to the petrodollar so wrote an article on this on steam about a month ago called China officially launches Petro yuan which is a gold backed Yuan oil contract. So one of the main reasons America has been able to maintain its dominance is because there's been an artificial demand for dollars because other countries in order to in order to buy oil they've got to first you know take their local currency put it into trends or they have to convert it into dollars and use those dollars to buy oil on a national level. Well there's another player in the game and that player is called China. And so you think the Chinese are going to be you know going through their own market or do you that will be going through. You know the dollar denominated petrodollar of course are going through their own and it's also backed by gold as well although no more details remain to be seen about what that actually means. But it's a way to have a back of system so when America you know tries waving its big stick around and says Hey Russia you know we're banning you from the SWIFT system which is basically the main kind of financial system that runs through New York and London. We're going to ban you basically cut you off. [00:20:26][96.0] [00:20:27] You know we're going to cut you off and then we say to Iran and we say it's all these other countries are going to say OK well fine we don't want to be a part of it anyways. And now we're going to go with China and you can't really you know accuse us of you know doing a thing you know malicious to you know try to bypass the petrodollar if you kicked us off the petrodollar to begin with. So this is a major major development has really been you know I think really completely ignored by the mainstream. But you know the bigger point is that our government cannot afford higher interest rates at all. We've got I mean the debt is all in the Israr it's almost doubled since since Trump has been in office and have to go back to June. That's the point. So why 6 2016 won't 23A now is three I think that's under the backdrop of barely being able to sell any bonds whatsoever. So we know what's going to happen when you know the Federal Reserve has it the only way we can really entice people to get these back get these start buying bonds again is to raise the rates. And so if China is not going to buy them if Japan who has a debt to GDP of 200 percent the most indebted place basically in the world you know you know even more so than like Venezuela which actually has less debt as a percentage that America does just didn't have a petrodollar. So you know it just paints a very bad picture because there's really only two kinds of scenarios that happen. [00:21:46][78.8] [00:21:46] One is that the Federal Reserve these reverse course are buying bonds again to lower this that has its own set of circumstances and how that plays out from an investment standpoint or you know they you know try to hold the line and say OK we're going to let the market sets rates and then basically the government would be paying you know a chilling dollars a year in interest at some point in the very near future. You know I'd say certainly at some point in the next 10 years you know they'll be paying over a trillion less day. Again like I just mentioned they're buying bonds and lowered the rate back down to zero which point there is no interest because we're buying all the bonds and that point no one will have any faith in the money. And you know this time we go through the roof. But the average American doesn't have any money in the stock market. So it's just these are questions that I pose to you know some of the best minds out there I posed to anytime a run across you know a billion dollar fund managers ask him this stuff you guys like Doug Casey who's a big time investment guy I've asked him this personally. You know Jeff Berwick this I asked Ernest Hancock all sorts of Peter Schiff all sorts of people I really pose this question to him really. You know I think they all sort of agree with me. Or the big investment guys who are you know to manage billions of dollars. They don't even know about this stuff and they seem like they're pretty concerned when I tell them no they don't want to upset the apple cart. [00:23:02][76.1] [00:23:02] So they're not going to really look into it that much but they do respect what I'm saying. Now why this poses a problem. Because you know the people who are diehard Trump supporters which you know one point I was you know pretty diehard until he changed his tune on a few things. I'm not rooting against him. I think I do want him to do well. I do want him to drain the swamp. But the biggest swamp out there is the Federal Reserve is a swamp. You can't build an economy on a centrally planned dictated top down federal reserve system where you've got this board of governors who makes every decision on interest rates who gain things who rig things. All that really isn't to benefit of anybody unless you're you know your worth you know a couple of billion dollars and maybe at that point it's going to be worth it you know and somebody like me I benefit from what they do because it makes the value of these assets go up well you know their program is completely versing. At one point they were buying lots of bonds and now they're starting to sell bonds. And so if the point of buying bonds was to raise prices then wouldn't doing the opposite. Lower prices. And that's I don't think that's too far of a stretch to really make that assumption. And then you know everything basically is always ok until the day that it's not OK. I mean I think that that's you know a true Maxim with everything. [00:24:12][69.8] [00:24:13] And we saw that you know a few months ago with the volatility index which measures you know you know how volatile the stock market is were. That was one of the big Wall Street you know safe things sure things is you know let's be sure volatility. And then you know you know that wasn't the only thing and some trend right now is I play a clip from January 25 which is actually the day before the stock market high. I think it might actually be less federal Zearth reverses course for those other central banks to start printing more money. You know I actually think that that that might actually be the high but lets you know whether it is or not. No not a huge deal but I'm going to play a quick clip from that they said you know we're thinking about not buying any more debt. So and Wall Street terms as when you're saying it's a hold. That means it's selling. And so you know that's quite an amazing thing that's going on. And also while the rates are going up it is supposed to be good. You know supposedly for the dollar and what we've seen is the dollar has gone down you know more of this year than it has you know basically since I was 11 months old. So I mean it's been over 30 years since the last time the dollar started off a year this week and last year the dollar was down roughly about Lukan any notes here but it was down roughly 10 percent. [00:25:22][68.8] [00:25:23] And so we are continuing this and a lot of people are saying that you know when the rates go up you know Wall Street guys say you know when the rates go up well then that means that there should be more demand for U.S. dollars. And so the dollar going down with the same backdrop of you know basically negative interest rates all around the world extremely low and all around the world and people still want to hold onto the dollar. And so it's the same situation that you're talking about with home prices going down with the backdrop of being out you know whenever it was 19 year lows. I think you mentioned supply and so it's the same deal and this is going to trickle down everywhere. And the other thing that was in that article that was particularly amazing to me is that you've got Jerome Powell talking about unloading their short volatility positions so I don't know if he means that the Fed was actually buying VIX which is the volatility index that measures how much basically the stock market goes up and down and so why this is a derivative. The VIX is just it's just your side bet on what the weather is going to be what the hell is the Fed doing in there. I mean if you ask me what are the two worst investments you can have long term. I would probably say short the VIX and long term Treasury bonds. Now look at what the Federal Reserve has it lay there short the VIX and the have long term Treasury bonds. I mean some of the worst run hedge fund in the world except they have such clout with four point four trillion dollars that their clout then distorts everything else. [00:26:48][85.6] [00:26:49] So a lot of the things that you know guys like myself and Peter Schiff have been talking about and yourself have been talking about for a while that are going to happen a lot. The reason why it's been delayed is because they're in there with their trillions of dollars efen everything up and distorting things. And that's probably one of the reasons why you should try to subscribe to this podcast because you know there is a lot of pressure and information least in my opinion it's come from me so I've got to pump it up a little bit. But you know this was taken the day before the stock market high so far. And you go back and you know look two weeks later and these funds that were short the expert lot of them are down to 86 percent 90 percent. I mean there's ones people lost all their money. And this is you know your everything's all good until the day it's not good. You know you could have that could that could have happened you know any one of the previous you know days of the past two years. But it didn't. You know one day it's fine. And then one day it blows up. And so you know that's exactly what I think is going to happen. Everything else you know you know hate him and you know you might sound like a stopped clock and some of this stuff and you know you've been talking about reserve and all this central bank stuff for you know quite a while. And you know it. [00:27:52][63.0] [00:27:52] Yeah yeah I have and I know that because I'm studying the Austrian economics because I understood exactly get this stuff that one day it's going to be fine and then you know one day the markets go down 25 hundred points the next day you can go down 2000 points. Next day rally at 50 500 points the next day might go down over a thousand and then it's going to be Friday and the market's going to be down you know 8000 points and then the Fed's going to have to come in step in. They don't have to step in but the willpower I mean they don't have you know Ben Bernanke a former Fed Reserve chairman to chairmen's ago labeled his book Courage to Act. Well you know the courage would be to not act to let all these bad players let the banks everybody go bankrupt and then to actually rebuild a new economy without a Federal Reserve in there who are screwing things up. And so you know it's for the people who say you know I don't know where I'm talking about or I've been saying this for a long time now saying that I was saying this whole thing with the VIX for a long time and then one day you know you look you know one day you know you ride high and then the next day lost 90 percent. And now you know maybe some of the retort people say about that is well you know you talk about crypto too and you know Cryptome that's down 50 percent. Well if I do want to respond to that because right now the total market cap of Krypto is a little over 400 billion dollars. And so right on the coin market cap Don. No filiation with this website. This thing it's a good website to go to. So I think the first time that I actually know you know talked about bitcoin. [00:29:13][81.1] [00:29:14] And again I was in such a gray area with my job that I wasn't really allowed to say the stuff were going back to June. I did it Facebook live where I was talking about Ethereum. And so you know in June you know the market cap was a little over you know depending what day it was was you know it started June you know a little under 100 billion dollars and then you know I thought August is when I had this idea to do this company again we're looking at under 200 billion dollars. But a hundred and forty billion dollars. Then you go to November you go to see October again still under Halloween still under 200 billion dollars. That's when I met Kirk from innovative Advisory Group. And you know one of the people that could really help launch this and then you know and then said that's when I was sort of working basically full time I'm getting this getting this out. And yeah there was a month where things went stupid from basically Thanksgiving and Christmas. The high was actually let's say the high was January 6 so Asher Eram birthday time and we're going to seven hundred ninety one million to our market cap but if you're really back out that one month I mean you know it's just one month things get really really stupid. Real quick where we're went from December. We started off at 333 billion. And then basically in the month you know a 119 billion dollars. [00:30:29][75.2] [00:30:30] You know I guess technically I'm about 40 days later and then it crashed back down to 291 billion but now we're looking at it's closer to almost half a trillion dollars 400 in the form 30 billion dollars. But you know people are like Oh I know you talked to a bitcoin crypto and again you know I'm a big fan of the crypto market the crypto market as a whole. I think it's going to multitrillion dollar market. To put that out there on the record and what I also do is I have a video that is 10 minutes long stating why a financial advisor would quit his job to record in bitcoin or get into the weeds of where I see this going in terms of not like making predictions of it's going to be where things are the worst. But really from the standpoint of house can change the world. Why is that change a world. Why somebody like me would risk everything in order to promote this. And you know there's no other financial advisers when you know the market cap was a hundred billion dollars was out there touting this and you know I'm sorry that you know someone that may have listened to me back then and would have only gone up 400 percent. But you know if you bought in at the exact market topped and you know you were lost money you bought it from basically December to begin in January. Yeah. Lost money but you know they only lost money. It probably would be a good idea to sell and then claim the loss and then use that buy back in to offset a future gain. Again talk to your CPA for any of those tests maneuvers or you know give myself a call Beinhart. [00:31:52][81.5] [00:31:52] I do think this market as a whole it does have legs and still is going places it's not saying you know you shouldn't put everything into all eggs in one basket obviously. But again I only bring that up because some people are saying hey you know you're talking about you know this Vicks going near 90 percent. Hey Krypto could go down 90 percent while not saying people should take all their money and put it into crypto currencies. You know a strong point that I want to make sure our Fascher plans they should understand how much money they can afford to lose. And again they should actually have a plan to know how much money you need to save how much money they can spend because you know there's that classic saying and China remember a tub had you know those who failed to plan those who planned to fail. And those who plan to fail and those who failed the plan can plan on failing. I think that something like that anyways you know you know maybe not all with it today but you know the other thing that I really want about real quickly was oh it was actually the midterms coming up so you know if we have downed Trump because what you have is a lot of people think there's this huge blue wave coming or that's what the media is talking about and I actually think that they are onto something that they are correct and believe me I don't want this to happen. You know my passion is trying to prevent this from happening but I'm not going to go you know bust my you know what to you know make sure a bunch of Republicans get in there. [00:33:07][75.1] [00:33:08] Republicans are going to spend you know considerably more money than even the Democrats are going to pass the largest budget ever at one point three trillion dollars. They're going to take Obama's deficit from six hundred sixty six billion and yes some increases were built into the cake because of interest rates and things like that but not not. Not doubling it not going from six hundred billion to one point two trillion. Not all of it is related to interest rates so Republicans need to take some sort of responsibility for that. And you know when you've got the Republicans who are you know spending more money than Democrats and who you know the optics on this are going to be terrible for them saying hey look at us and we're going to get rid of Obamacare away. That didn't happen. Oh. Hey elect us and we're going to you know decrease government spending. It doesn't happen. Oh they elect us and we're going to do you know all of these other things we said we're going to do well not they have done some of it. But you know I think not nearly to the extent of running everything that we'd expect them to be able to do. And I think that's going to they're going to be hurting big time in the elections. Now know one of the elections people used to kind of refute to the Blue Wave analysis was out here in Arizona. I actually live in the district I live in Peoria Arizona which was Congressional District Number eight the one where Debbie Lesko won over the Democrat. [00:34:24][76.0] [00:34:25] Well the Democrat was a nobody who no one even knew her name till two months before Doctor Who came out of the complete Blue who you know had basically no help from the Democratic Party whatsoever because this is a district where basically it's been completely Republican run since the time I was born. I mean a lot of times Democrats don't even challenge because there's such a stronghold of conservatism in here. I think you know in the past recently you know the Republicans won by as much as 30 points. You know when Trump is there I think they won by 25 points and now they squeaked out a five point victory in a place where temperate Choate lives who obviously moved to a conservative place to a place where you know in the old where there's a ton of independents but a lot of people are independent because they think the Republicans are a bunch of right now is the thing that Republicans you know are you know basically the Democratic Party right. And so this is a very conservative area and you only squeak out a 5 5 percent gain here. You know it's not going to bode well for the places where Trump only won by you know you know 5000 votes here 50000 votes in the state. You know so I do see that being a big problem. [00:35:30][65.0] [00:35:30] And you know if you thought that the Republicans were completely basically useless when they controlled everything well how do you think it's going to look like when all of a sudden now when it's the Democrats and they're taking over and then if the Democrats are taking over the midterms you know what do you think that's going to do to the economy what do you think that's going to do to you know gridlock. Nigga I don't even care about gridlock because most Taimur thing to do ends up being bad anyway so fine had them do nothing for all I care. But that's not the point the point is. I think the stock market is going to view that as very bad news. I think obviously at that point spending is not going to go down. I mean that's you know that's going to be pretty pretty obvious at that point but you know who knows whom I doubt will be an official recession by the time midterms roll around but no by the time 2020 rolls around we might very well be in it. And the reason why we won't be in an official recession is to do things like I just mentioned how they rig these numbers. So if they see inflation but you know let's say inflation you know might really be 10 or 11 and they can't hide it and they've got to say it's you know three and a half and we're only growing at 3 but we've got 3 1/2 percent inflation that we can't hide then we're at that point we'd be losing half a percent. And so you know if we accurately count this stuff right now we probably would have never even technically even gotten out of a recession from a holiday. You know a lot of that's to do with how they count the inflation data and a lot of it and then look at how much GDP goes you know bombing people. So. OK. No no. Are we better off because people are spending more money on oil. [00:36:52][81.8] [00:36:53] Are we better off because people are spending more money on healthcare. Are we really better off because people are spending more money on student loans. Are we better off if people are saying now spend more money in mortgages and interest rates were really better off because you know we're spreading bombs all around the world. I would argue that we're actually not. But all of those are positive contributors to GDP. And one thing I didn't even mention before is you also had the inventory build up. People are buying stuff. And so the inventory build up would have a negative effect to the GDP although how they calculate it they don't actually take that into consideration. But what it really is doing is bought we borrowed a better number 223 being a better number from the future by doing some rigging. So I would actually think that this is not going to be great news. You know the Democrats I think I think there's a lot that they can run on at least from a congressional standpoint. And when that happens you know certainly the rates are not going go down at that point you know there's not going to be any. You know all of a sudden more demand for US debt is not going to be you know the optics of the debt's going down. At least we're going down underneath Obama from the deficit. Now all of a sudden you know the Republicans get in the deficit doubles in one year. I mean while we're collecting record amounts of taxes might I add. Yeah I do believe that cutting taxes does increase. [00:38:14][81.1] [00:38:15] You know you know the GDP but you have to also have the balls to then cut government spending. And right now the government they do not have the balls cut government spending and because they actually increase government spending so if you increase the amount of spending while temporarily decreasing why don't you bring in. It's very easy optics to say hey you know we had Bill Clinton in there things are going great. We have George Bush in there. He screws everything up. So then that you know Obama had to spend all this money and to fix or mistake from the Republicans and now we elect Republicans again and they give corporate tax breaks to the ultra wealthy. And again I'm just saying these are the optics that are going to be out there. You know some of the stuff you know when the tax breaks you know I don't think there should be an income tax. I think we should base our consumption tax. I don't think this is actually tax reform although I think it's better that the number is getting close to zero. You know if I were to do it myself I would have done it a little bit differently. Hopefully this didn't just turn off because I went to a screen saver. All right we'll see we're back on now. But you know there's all these bad optics and really it's not going to bode well for the GOP. But the bottom line is everything we're talking about right now today everything I'm talking about you know it has effects on you it has effects on your money has affects your portfolio has effects on your retirement. [00:39:26][70.8] [00:39:27] So shoot me a line at you know info at the Liberty adviser dot com. That's adviser with an O. And if you want to talk more about how this can affect your retirement because you know again if you're five years away from retirement there's one way to play it if you're super conservative. There might be another way to play if you're you know you're 25 years old there's another way to play. This is shit and getting crypto currencies in your IRA. Also you know I'm proud I'm probably the only person around to my knowledge that can actually have real cryptos in your IRA and have traditional investments as well. So you know there's a whole host of reasons we have protected growth strategies we're buying basically insurance on the downside through options to limit the maximum drawdown while also giving you almost all the upside because at the end of the day people want to know that they're going to avoid the major market downturns while also participating in the upside. You know I think depending on how this shakes out certain asset classes will do better than others and the time to prepare is right now that you know we were you know lucky that we have everything didn't crash I guess in 2000 you know 14 if you're listening to this now and didn't do enough to or haven't done anything to protect yourself because now you do have a chance this chance. You know I don't know how long it's going to be. Just like you know with the VIX that could have happened a year and a half ago but it didn't. It happened January it happened. You know the first week of February. [00:40:43][75.8] [00:40:44] And so right now you've gotten lucky. You're listening to this you're lucky that you listen to somebody that knows what's going on. Not to say that I can guarantee anything but you know give us a call and e-mail you can go to Liberty adviser dot com. The Liberty adviser dot com we've got a blog that I'm trying to rework right now. I've got a guy that's a guy who's been slammed them with a whole bunch of stuff and so it's not you know the finished product that I ultimately wanted to be. But I will have a session on politics or politics and then when I said it that way sounds kind of weird. On Krypto had a section on the market section investing have a section specifically for millennials and so you know if hey if you listen to this and say hey you know I don't like your political stuff. Well then you know I'll have stuff that's you know categorized for all the other topics or you want to listen to me for crypto. Will you be able to do it just for that you want to listen to me just for market information. Well you will do that. I mean today was a little bit of a grab bag were touched down a little bit at a little bit of all this stuff really. You know again I was a huge and I still supported the president when he's doing things that are good at things. North Korea stuff is great. [00:41:45][61.7] [00:41:46] You know I think he is doing a lot of really great stuff so don't take this as you know one huge you know Donald Trump bash but you know what he is saying things that are completely counter to what he was saying as a candidate. And people are giving him cover for that. You know I'm not going to give you cover for that because I'm actually standing by my conviction the same conviction that basically you know as result of the me being unemployed right now until now because I was standing on a conviction of actually believing in black and believing and crypto believing this is a better future is actually a future that is going to be taken off because the genie is out of the bottle. And so I was willing to do that hard sacrifices that you know you know poking a little you know a lot holes in some of the stuff he's saying like that that's going to be a big deal to me. Of course it's not so. You know I'm just trying to give you guys the truth. I hope you guys you know really appreciate everyone that's watching this everyone is listening to this. Please share it. Please tell your friends about it. Odds are they're not getting this information from CNBC. Well I think the odds of that are about 100 percent that they're not getting this information from CNBC unless like Peter Schiff or David Stockman maybe in every now and then but definitely appreciate to watch and listen. You guys can follow me on steam it at Tim Picciott Thank you all for watching and listening and I hope you have a great restful week. [00:43:02][75.6] [2559.4]